electrek:

Elon Musk’s brother Kimbal, who is also a board member at Tesla, is not as optimistic as his brother about Tesla delivering ‘Full Self-Driving’. He says: “maybe 5 years”.

Virtually every year for the past five years, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said that the company will achieve full self-driving capability by the end of the year.

It has become a sort of running joke.

Again, a month into the year, Musk recently said that Tesla’s self-driving would become a clear reality “probably this year.”

Over the years, there have been many reports about other people at Tesla feeling that Musk was too optimistic about his self-driving timelines.

Now, it looks like even his own brother is a bit more careful about stating when Tesla is going to be able to remove the steering wheel inside its vehicles.

When asked about it in an interview with Graham Bensinger, Kimbal said:

I would say maybe 5 years. Definitely, in this decade. I think we might come out with the robotaxi before that, and it would have no steering wheel at all. You also have to do government regulations. We need to get through that.

Here’s the video interview:

Electrek’s Take

I think a five-year timeline is much more realistic, which is interesting coming from Kimbal, a board member. There’s no doubt that Elon would know a lot more about the program as CEO, but he seems to always think Tesla is on the verge of achieving self-driving.

As usual, I like to remind people that self-driving is an extremely difficult problem to solve and normally, I wouldn’t be too hard on Tesla for not delivering it yet. However, I feel like it’s OK to be tougher on Tesla since it decided to sell the feature to everyone before delivering it.

I previously reported that I see Tesla FSD Beta v12 as sort of the automaker’s last hope to deliver the capacity. It includes a full architecture rewrite of the system and finally introduces neural net-based vehicle controls. All of the pieces of the puzzle are in there now. The only thing left is to train and improve the system, but we heard that one before.

It feels like if Tesla can’t make it work with that, there’s serious doubt about achieving self-driving on the current hardware.

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MuskWire TLDR:

Kimbal Musk, Elon Musk’s brother and a board member at Tesla, expressed a more cautious outlook on Tesla’s ability to deliver “Full Self-Driving” technology. In an interview, Kimbal stated that it could take around five years for Tesla to achieve this milestone, potentially even longer due to government regulations. This differs from Elon Musk’s previous statements, where he has consistently mentioned that Tesla would achieve full self-driving capability within a year. The article highlights the difficulty of developing self-driving technology and suggests that a five-year timeline is more realistic. It also mentions Tesla’s decision to sell the feature before delivering it, which has led to increased scrutiny on the company’s progress. The article concludes by discussing Tesla’s latest software update, FSD Beta v12, which is seen as the automaker’s last hope to deliver on its self-driving promises.